We Play Coins

TON blockchain to reach $20 Billion in the next 5 years: Research paper

TON blockchain to reach $20 Billion in the next 5 years: Research paper
By We Play Coins
Added on Oct 10, 2019

TON blockchain to reach $20 Billion in the next 5 years according to a research paper by Elias Simos, Senior Research Analyst at decentralpark.io.

The Telegram Open Netwоrk (TON) is a new blоckchain that will soon come online as a natural response tо the growing pains the blockchain ecosystem is currently subject to; namely (i) lоw capacity and transactiоn speed levels that pale in comparison to status quo financial back-ends (e.g. the Visa network) and (ii) complex user interfaces (UI) and experiences (UX) оf cryptо prоducts (exchanges, wallets, digital identity management, etc).

Key Takeaways

  • If delivered as intended, with 250M (and growing) active users on its front-end, TON can be the gateway for cryptoassets and the related applications to “bank the unbanked”, and become the first ubiquitous discovery platform for Web 3.0 applications, akin to the App Store for Web 2.0.
  • However, at this stage, interoperability appears a long way out, as (i) it is common for blockchain networks to spend at least one or two years post Mainnet launch to achieve a stable state and (ii) other networks need to achieve maturity, in order for interoperability to make sense.
  • Over a 5-year horizon, once key pieces of the platform are in place and the token economy stabilizes, they expect the network’s value to surpass $20B, making Grams a top-10 protocol asset.
  • TON introduces a collection of highly promising technologies, but the unknowns in the feasibility of some of the parts, as well as the sum of the parts, are still many.
  • In the initial stages of the launch, TON appears to be less open to developers than its competitors. In a world where talent is scarce, they view that as a competitive disadvantage.
  • The instability in the current macro- and meso- environments, makes the launch phase of the Gram token economy, all the more challenging.
  • The unfriendly attitude of local governments in the countries where Telegram’s users are predominantly based, may dampen the adoption of Grams by users, by slowing the value flow from fiat to Grams.
  • With weak demand among crypto-native investors, few avenues for current Telegram users to acquire Grams, delays in delivery, the Foundations intent to not proceed with buybacks, and ~60% of the total supply of Grams coming to market in Year 1, we expect selling pressure to outweigh demand for the asset in the short-to-medium term.


The project is the brainchild of Pavel and Nikolai Durov, Russia’s best known tech entrepreneurs, founders of social network VKontakte2 and the Telegrammessaging app. Over a decade, the founders of TON have created and scaled globally two era-defining internet ventures and are on the way to their third. What is particularly noteworthy is that they did so in the face of adversity, coming in direct conflict with the Russian government when it came to protecting the privacy of their users.

The ethos on which their businesses have been built and the personal brand they have developed along the way could not be a better match for the blockchain space. Telegram was born out of the founders’ need to communicate privately while under the magnifying glass of the Russian security services. While growing Telegram’s user base to the first 100M, the Durovs deployed a strategy of geographical arbitrage, frequently changing their base of operations between various cities in the world and building the messenger on a robust network of distributed servers. By merit of his track record, Pavel Durov – Telegram’s CEO, has become an icon among privacy activists in Russia and beyond.

Telegram always looked more like a stateless cypherpunk messaging service than a glossy Silicon Valley type start-up. And TON appears to be here to carry that legacy forward.

Among their many achievements, Pavel and Nikolai Durov have also spearheaded the second largest fundraiser in the history of blockchains , raising an estimated $1.7B over two private sales between February and March 2018; an impressive feat and inarguably far more deserving than the majority of its neighbours at the top of the list of largest fundraises in the ICO era. Now, a year and a half after TON closed its final $850M funding round and with the public launch expected in Q4 2019, the world looks like a fundamentally different place, both within crypto as well as more generally.